Saturday, February 19, 2005

I welcome China

Why is China’s looming economic superpower status depicted by many MSM types as scary for America’s long-term prospects? Where are the conservative voices on this issue? On the economic front, any free trader is enthused at the prospect of 1 billion plus consumers buying American products, services and ahhhmmmm….culture [yes I’m pro Anna Nichole Smith for export]. As you know, economics is not zero-sum, and a growing China means their people will begin to have money to spend. And spend it they will!!

As a school kid I recall the dire predictions of Japan Inc. I’ve seen recently some tepid parallels being drawn but little sustained analysis. Back in the day I did some research on this topic and the answers I found reassured me of America’s continued success.

It comes to this: You can drop a 21st century commodity/factory production line in a 3rd world economy and immediately see tremendous gains in productivity and GDP as it benefits from routinization, protectionism and below market labor cost, e.g. China. But the laws of diminishing returns kick in, as that economy catches up to modern production standards and sources of revenue. As a growing percentage of profits are generated by dynamic innovations on current technologies such economies have historically stagnated e.g. Japan!!! The parallels are striking and repeated throughout history.

This is not an American jingoistic tirade, but a simple fact accepted by free traders the world over.

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